No Champions League, No Plan B...No More Schuster?

At about this time last year, despite being in the midst of a historic championship run, there were many who debated whether then coach Fabio Capello should continue at the helm of Real Madrid. In the end, he was let go and I think the situation worked out for the best for everyone. However this does not change the fact that I think he was unjustly let go. Capello was hired to win a championship, he did just that and was promptly fired.

After the team got knocked out of the Champions League this season, Capello’s replacement, Bernd Schuster, now finds himself under the same scrutiny as his predecessor. Almost immediately following the defeat to Roma, the Spanish media started to call for his head. Now there are talks that ex-Chelsea manager Jose Mourinho has been in contact with the higher ups at Real Madrid. As if Schuster’s problems weren’t big enough, he now has to deal with Mourinho nipping at his heels.

Once again, I find this entire situation to be very unfair to the manager. The performance during and result of that Champions League defeat was unexpected and unacceptable from a team of Madrid’s stature. However, I don’t think it should be the basis for an overhaul in leadership.

To be fair, the team has not looked good for a some time now, and some of that definitely has to be blamed on the manager. Schuster was responsible for that defensive minded “double pivot” formation that paired Fernando Gago and Mamadou Diarra in the 1-2 loss to Roma. If someone watched that game and didn’t know the result of the first leg, it would not be unreasonable to think Madrid was up a goal or two with that formation. Gago and Diarra in the midfield is just unnecessary when the team is down a goal.

It’s important to also remember that Madrid is simply an injury filled squad at the moment. Add to that all the suspensions and now we’re talking about a thoroughly depleted side. Ironically, Madrid were knocked out of the Champions with almost the same starters and tactics as the Capello era.

I think that the people who run the team as well as the fans are too short sighted. They want victories, titles, flash, and goals and they want them now. They need to understand the importance of letting a project grow and breathe. Madrid changed their signing philosophy over this last transfer window, swapping the Galaticos for talented youth in the development stage.

Players like Drenthe, Robben, Marcelo, Pepe and Metzelder need time to develop into the players they are destined to develop into. In order to do this they need to get used to a manager and a system. Constantly changing the game plan might hinder their growth. Simply look at Robinho for proof of this. As soon as Schuster said he was going to become an integral part of the attack, he flourished.

With a victory over the weekend Schuster has bought himself some time, but another defeat and the talks for his dismissal will no doubt reignite. I believe that Schuster should be judged when the side is healthy and completely match fit.

This entire health situation has shone a spotlight on a major problem that both Schuster and the administrative staff at Real Madrid have not addressed; a plan B.

What I mean by that is that when the team is hurt, they are basically caught with their pants down and have no idea what to do. All the great sides in Europe are rich in talent. Teams like Manchester United, Chelsea, Inter Milan and Barcelona can all survive when their starters get hurt or are suspended. This has not the case with Madrid. When starters are hurt the drop in talent is significant. The best example is the right back position, which goes from Sergio Ramos to Michel Salgado. Salgado’s best days are behind him, and he is unfortunately prone to injuries, so he’s far from an ideal backup.

Please don’t misinterpret my position on the managerial issue as pro-Schuster; he has not had enough time with a full squad to state with surety what his managerial merit is. My position is one of sticking with someone and letting him run the team his way for more than a season. Once players are healthy and settled for more than a campaign one can begin to form informed opinions with an appropriate sample size.

It’s obvious that results alone won’t save Schuster from this point on. As a minimum he has to win the league and if he doesn’t do it with the style that Ramon Calderon sees fit, then heaven be with him. Let’s just hope that however the season ends, we as fans can see the healthy and fit starting eleven that we were all were so excited about when the season began.

Things Start to Even Out

After their third consecutive loss, things are looking quite dismal for Real Madrid. Their most recent loss to Getafe has been the most painful as it was the result of an embarrassing lack of attention by the players. What has happened to the team? Has all the talk of the league being over gone to their head? Is Robinho that important to the squad? Have the players collective taken a dip in form? While all those factors have contributed, the main cause for this situation is a little thing called statistical regression.

I realize that statistics are not a major part of soccer, but having been raised following baseball, I can’t help but be interested in the numbers of the sport. The basic idea behind statistical regression in sports is that a team or player can’t escape its natural talent level. There will always be peaks and valleys, but over the course of a season, teams and players will end up where they belong as far as stats and results (usually). Simply put, statistical regression means that the high and low points of a season even out to place a team where it should be.

Looking at Real Madrid’s season with this in mind, one finds a few things. First of all, Madrid is a good team but not a great team. In the first half of the season, they were getting the results of a great team. They were winning games where they were getting outplayed, getting all the breaks, and frankly getting a little lucky. Granted, there is a little bit of luck in winning any competition, but after a certain point the luck runs out.

This is where statistical regression comes to play. Now it seems like Madrid is outplaying their opponents but can’t win. All of a sudden, Madrid seems to be creating chances but the team is not able to finish them. The injuries, the bizarre goals given up, and the few goals created are all a result of this regression phenomenon.

This statistical regression is being seen by two of the other big clubs in Spain; Barcelona and Sevilla. Sevilla have quietly been shooting up the table and are only two points away from a Champions League spot despite a horrific start to the season. Barcelona have reaped all the benefits of Madrid’s drop off and now find themselves only two points down in the league, and are sitting quite comfortably in their Champions League tie. This after the team was mired in player controversy and general lackluster play.

Just to be clear, I’m not arguing that statistical regression is the only factor in determining a season for a team because that is obviously not the case. There are plenty of intangibles that have a heavy hand in determining a league or a cup. However, statistical regression does have a part in explaining why teams play over their head or under perform, and then magically seem to end up where they should at season’s end.

Recently the Spanish newspaper “Marca” published an article stating that Real Madrid has statistically shot and defended better than their last few opponents, yet the results haven’t come. Unfortunately, I don’t think I’ll be reading the phrase “Regresion Estadistica” in the paper any time soon.

What a Difference a Week Makes...

After a historic victory, in which Madrid thrashed Valladolid 7-0, the team came back and lost with an unimpressive performance against Real Betis. The loss, combined with Barcelona’s controversial victory against Zaragoza, has once again opened up the league by shrinking Madrid’s lead to five points in the table.

After a very quick lead, Madrid began to sit back and Betis put in two in five minutes, mostly due to two blunders by Marcelo. After that Betis parked the bus in front of goal and Madrid couldn’t get anything going offensively.

It might not be a bad thing to get humbled heading into the Champions League. Coming off a 7-0 victory, the team might’ve been experiencing a little euphoria, especially with all the talk that the league was over. Now they know that they are going to have to work really hard and step up their game both in league and in Europe.

One positive that I took from the last two games was the emergence of two Dutch giants. One is already one of soccer’s elite, the other is emerging into one. I’m talking about Arjen Robben and Royston Drenthe.

We here at American Madridistas had become very critical of Robben, saying that his purchase may have been one of the biggest blunders in recent transfer windows. While this is still entirely possible, he showed everyone that he wants and deserves a place in Madrid. We mostly criticized the economic side of the transfer, we all know that he is a world class player when fit, but if he can give the team what he gave over the last two games then he will be worth every penny. With the addition of Robben in the squad Madrid have an actual winger who can provide service into the strikers. This gives the team more options on the attack and it gives the opposition more to deal with. This is especially important considering that it is only a matter of time before more teams figure out that to stop Madrid you simply have to shut down their center midfield.

Speaking of Madrid’s future, we were all shown a glimpse into one of the future stars in Royston Drenthe. He was signed to the team after a dominant performance for the Dutch Under-21 team. He scored in Madrid’s last two games, and has shown the pace and flash for which he was brought.

The two Dutchmen combined to score Madrid’s only goal over the weekend.

I didn’t agree with Schuster’s decision to take out Drenthe because at that point the wings became nullified and Guti had been wholly ineffective throughout that entire match. The problem is that without wings, Madrid relies too much on Guti’s through passes. When he has the space he needs he is deadly but when opposition shut him down the offense basically stops. Julio Baptista has been a good second option but with the injury to Ruud Van Nistelrooy, the Beast has been pushed forward. Madrid needs wing players to expand their attack.

Let’s see what Schuster decides for the clash in Rome.

They Just Keep on Winning

With style or with out, Madrid are on a historic run right now. They have the most league points to this stage of the campaign in their history. They almost have a double digit point lead on the second place team Barcelona. Not only that, but they have a confidence and a swagger that can’t be seen in any other side at the moment in Spain. They are coming off a crucial victory in La Liga in which all of their closest rivals dropped points while they gained three very valuable points. The game was not only important from a league table perspective but also from a performance basis. This was the first game in a while where the regular starters played and won with a true team performance. The last few weeks they had been relying too heavily on miracle saves from Iker Casillas and deadly strikes from Robinho and Ruud Van Nistelroy. However on Sunday everyone stepped up their game.

One player that made a very significant improvement was Fernando Gago. He was winning balls and making excellent passes, including a phenomenal flick to Sneijder which led to the game winning goal.

Also in the middle of the park, Guti had a very positive performance. He tends to be on and off but on Sunday he was most definitely on. His assist to Robinho was brilliant and his overall game play and passing was spot on.

As has been the case lately, Robinho is to be commended for a brilliant performance. He has transformed into a phenom on the pitch. Finally all the promise is coming to fruition.

The defense was rock solid and a special recognition should be made to Michel Salgado who played his heart out and only came out due to injuries.

There are a few out there who are beginning to whisper that with the victory over the weekend, Madrid may have all but wrapped up the league. I for one don’t agree with this sentiment and in fact it is this type of thinking that could ultimately lead to the team’s demise. However that fighting spirit that was kindled under Capello has lingered with this bunch and one gets a sense that they’ll continue to fight for every game until the season ends.

One interesting thought about this game and the next few to come. What is Schuster to do with Arjen Robben? The team is solid right now and throwing Robben in the mix could hurt the chemistry that is building between the regular staring eleven. Also with no more Cup games, Robben will have to build back his form and confidence in league games or heaven forbid a Champions League tie.

Things look good and are going well but let’s not forget to stay humble because at this time last year we were looking up to Barcelona.